Georgia's Flashy President Starts War, Gains No Meaningful Backing

I started my Sunday morning not the best way - by reading an hysterical first-page article in the NRC Handelsblad (the Dutch equivalent of the Times) about the current Russian-Georgian conflict. The author proclaims the man on whose orders Georgian tanks moved into South Ossetia - Bush's own flamboyant Mikhail Saakashvili - the only saviour of the nation. The NRC Handelsblad are known Russophobes - the very word 'Rusland' seems to make them salivate with venom - but this time they are not alone.

The whole international community that sponsored Kosovo's (technically illegal) breakaway from Serbia this time gangs up on Russia who stuck in for a tiny republic where 90% of the population voted to become independent from Georgia. Both sides clearly have vested interests in the region but double standards of the Western press are still shamelessly cynical. The very people who invented lies about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to gain access to the country's oil are vociferously concerned now talk about Russia's international reputation.

Without digging to deep into it, the cause of the current warfare is Russia's (up to now) peaceful de-facto annexation of South Ossetia, a part of the New Great Game. Any power shift or attempt at such in the region roughly from Novorossiysk to Karachi and from Istanbul to Bishkek is in one way or another related to sharing the Central Asian oil-and-gas pie. It is noteworthy that despite all the worldwide media hoopla there has not been a single attempt to show the events in this context.

Russian quiet advance into Georgian separatist enclaves has been going for a while now and probably started when Russia realized that the USA and the NATO are tied up to the gills in Iraq and Afghanistan. First chink in the American armour showed in 2005 when Russians managed to get rid of American air bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Using old connections, wielding new financial clout or teaming up with China - no holds are barred for Russia to squeeze pesky Americans from what Russians consider their own backyard - Central Asia and Caucasus.

Now that Russia's G8 bed-fellows are getting embroiled deeper and deeper in Iran's nuclear saga, on top of the forthcoming US elections and continuing turmoil with further EU consolidation, the new Russian administration must have seen their chance to use the ultima ratio regum to 'stabilize' the situation in the most volatile region - Northern Caucasus. We yet have to see if this is going to pan out - the chances are it will. Whatever the outcome, the only gainers will be oil magnates and politicians and the only losers - Ossetian and Georgian civilians.